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Reimagining the tools of economic growth

18 September 2024

UCL Professor of Economics Łukasz Rachel reflects on how his childhood in post-soviet Poland and an early job at the Bank of England came to shape his work, with Maddy Breen.

A man standing

There aren’t many economists who can truthfully report that their first week at the Bank of England in 2008 was also the week that Lehman Brothers collapsed and the Great Financial Crisis truly began.

But Łukasz Rachel can.

“It wasn’t causal, I hope” he grins. But even if it wasn’t the reason behind the crash, it is clear that this experience, along with his childhood growing up in Poland as communism collapsed, has hugely shaped his career since.

“The job of a macroeconomist is very countercyclical - when bad things happen, unfortunately, it tends to make our work more interesting,” Rachel summarises. “Certainly, it was all hands on deck at the Bank of England at the time; the problems that we were grappling with were just huge in magnitude, and huge in consequence. This was an unprecedented crisis, and it was uncharted waters.”

Growing up in 1990s Poland was also uncharted waters. Following the revolutions of 1989 and the success of the trade union Solidarity in the summer elections, Poland broke free of the Warsaw Pact and gained independence that New Year’s Eve. The change between the decades is vast. My own family’s memories of Poland under Soviet influence are of a world with hardly anything in shops, unless you had hard currency, which you could spend in specific shops on such luxuries as tinned ham. Although Rachel doesn’t recall much of his early years under Communism, the changes that followed left a lasting impression.

“I remember finding it fascinating how the situation just changed so much and how people became very entrepreneurial. Suddenly, the environment became very different; from a stagnant, grey, backwardlooking place to a place full of enthusiasm, and interesting, different things.”

It is no surprise, then, that change—its role and implications—is at the heart of Rachel’s work today. His research focuses on understanding the nature of technological change and its impact on economic performance, growth, standards of living, and the distributional effects that such changes bring.

That other watershed moment, at the Bank of England, had a similarly important influence.

“As junior economists, we were given a lot of freedom and trust to try to put some framing into what had happened and to come up with some answers. But as we moved out of the crash, there were more and more longer-term questions that needed answers. With that shift, I grew more and more interested in looking at these questions more deeply – not just doing policy work but researching these questions.”

This takes him to technology today.

“A long-standing project of mine is trying to understand exactly what the consequences of that technological change, which shows up as the increasingly intense fight for consumer attention, and what that means for the economy. What the answer is, at least according to my research, is that this fight for consumer attention becomes naturally more and more prevalent, and more and more fierce as the economy develops.”

“When that happens, more and more resources are devoted to developing new technologies that try to attract consumers’ attention, which canshift the engine of growth away from the traditional technologies that show up well in our GDP and productivity measurements, towards the products and services that don’t.”

“One issue is mismeasurement; we mismeasure real progress because we’re not capturing the value of everything on your smartphone that’s basically given to you for free. At the same time, this translation of the traditional economic progress towards this leisure-enhancing technological change, as I call it, might happen at a very inefficient rate. On the one hand, we might not measure all the progress, but on the other hand, we could be sacrificing traditional technological progress for some of these attention-grabbing technologies. We might be sending too much talent basically to work on the next YouTube feed that’s going to capture your attention, compared to sending talent to work on the next drug that will save lives.”

Throughout our conversation, I’m aware of the challenges Rachel’s ideas might pose for traditional ways of looking at problems. His effort is always to find the new.

“Some of the most beautiful moments in economics, for me as an economist, is when the most natural or obvious intuitions just fail. They fail for good reason, and you see those intuitions repeated over and over again, and yet there’s a simple explanation for why they don’t work.”

And does this apply to the major economic challenges facing government too? Like how to generate greater growth?

“It is a big question”, he replies. “The source of growth has got to come from the government setting theright environment for the private sector to thrive. But that’s escaping the question really, because that’s very general.”

“I don’t think there’s any particular single policy that is going to change the situation dramatically. We need to think about a coherent program of policies that complement each other. The important thing, especially in the context of the UK would be to implement a set of policies that include wider partsof the population in the growth-generating economic process.”

“That’s got to start from childhood and from investments in education. I think this is a no-brainer. There’s going to be a long-term gain in this, it’s nota short-term win, but it’s absolutely crucial that we realise that the societal rate of return from investment in early education and in schooling is going to be orders of magnitude larger than the cost.”

“Encouraging more risk-taking, unlocking more capital for riskier projects, is another thing that I would stress,” he emphasises.

And with this stress on the potential power of youth and novelty, I can’t help but think of his recollections of being a junior economist, encouraged to bring new thinking and given the freedom to look for answers during the crash.

We all live through watershed moments which shape us and the decisions we make. Change, whether written in the chapters of history books or taking place quietly in our homes, demands that we step out of our comfort zones. It’s in these moments of uncertainty that we find the courage to redefine what’s possible, and the confidence to deliver it.