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US airstrikes on Iran-backed armed groups听听have been anticipated for some time. Since the Hamas attacks in Israel on October 7, US forces in the Middle East have been targeted more than听. These attacks, mainly on US bases in Iraq and Syria caused minimal damage thanks to US air defence capabilities.

The Biden administration had responded with听听on the militias鈥� weapons storage and training sites. But a听听on January 28 on Tower 22, a US base on the Jordanian-Syrian border, killed three soldiers and wounded dozens of others.

The deaths represented an unofficial red line for many in Washington, and听听mounted fast on President Biden to respond more forcefully against the armed groups 鈥� or even听听颈迟蝉别濒蹿.

听said the air strikes targeted command-and-control sites, intelligence centres and drone storage facilities in Iraq and Syria affiliated with the militias and also with the听, a branch of Iran鈥檚 Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps.

叠颈诲别苍听听that the US would continue strikes at times and places of their choosing.

Though more widespread than previous strikes, the response was听听to avoid stoking a broader war. Furthermore, the US signalled its intentions days in advance, giving the groups and their advisers time to move to minimise casualties.

Militant groups targeted

There are about听听in the region backed by Iran. These include high-profile groups such as听, which carried out the October 7 attack in Israel as well as听, which has been engaged in cross-border fire with Israel on the Lebanon border since October. Meanwhile,听听in Yemen have faced separate听听in response to their targeting of commercial ships in the Red Sea.

But many other, smaller groups operate as well. Responsibility for the lethal drone strike was claimed by the听, a loose network of Iran-backed militias including听, which fought against coalition forces during the Iraq war. These and other militias have continued to target US troops who remain in the region to prevent the resurgence of Islamic State.

滨谤补苍听听a mix of training, intelligence, funding and weapons to groups within its self-described 鈥渁xis of resistance鈥�. But Tehran听听the militias, who operate with varying degrees of autonomy, and who might be better seen as affiliates than proxies.

US political choices

The Biden administration has been walking a tightrope in the Middle East. On the one hand, the administration鈥檚 primary aim for the past four months has been听听a regional war in the aftermath of the Hamas attack and the subsequent war in Gaza. At the same time, the US has sought to deter adversaries who have been using increasing degrees of armed force against US personnel (and, in the case of the Red Sea, against international commercial vessels).

The challenge has been in determining a response that is forceful enough to deter further attacks, but not so devastating as to provoke a fully fledged war.

With the election year, Biden is also facing听听from home on his foreign policy decisions. Donald Trump has long sought to make 叠颈诲别苍听听on Iran, while many Democrats have been听听of the president鈥檚 use of airstrikes, as well as his approach to the war in Gaza. The calibrated airstrikes of the weekend will probably attract further听听from both sides 鈥� for going too far or not far enough.

Gaza conflict

There鈥檚 no guarantee that a ceasefire (temporary or permanent) would bring a stop to attacks on US troops in Iraq and Syria, or to Houthi attacks on vessels in the Red Sea. But it鈥檚 undeniable that the crisis in Gaza has emboldened armed groups around the region, who have repeatedly听听their actions.

The US, Egypt and Qatar have been mediating between Israel and Hamas to听听that would see a halt of military operations in Gaza in return for a phased release of hostages. While clearly crucial for the听听and their families and for the听, the deal could also be the key to defusing other tensions in the region, at least temporarily.

While the deal is far from a final听, the nature of the US strikes was probably calibrated in part to avoid disrupting the process.

Preventing regional war

Iran, as well as Iraq and Syria,听听the strikes, and accused the US of aggression. But Iran has not indicated it听. This suggests that Tehran 鈥� like Washington 鈥� is still keen to听avoid听a head-to-head conflict with the US.

Meanwhile, while Kataib Hezbollah has announced it听听attacks on US troops, other armed groups have said that听听is not the end, and they will continue to strike against the US presence in the region.

For the Biden administration, the aim of听听a regional war is still the right objective, even 鈥� perhaps especially 鈥� in the face of rising tensions. A policy of careful calibration, coupled with meaningful negotiations to halt the war in Gaza, may not be as politically enticing as flexing US military might 鈥� but it鈥檚 the approach that is most in line with the longer-term interests of the US and the region.

Links

• 听
• Dr Julie Norman's academic profile
• UCL Political Science
• UCL Social & Historical Sciences