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With the听last week, Joe Biden鈥檚 speechwriting staff has doubtlessly spent the last several days rewriting the president鈥檚 State of the Union address. Amid the Russia-Ukraine conflict, some White House advisers have听听even advised the president to reframe his entire speech around themes of democracy versus authoritarianism.

Yet despite the prominent role that foreign policy will play in Biden鈥檚 primetime address, the president still needs to speak to voter concerns at home. And when he does, here鈥檚 the operative question: Which Joe Biden will we hear from? The pragmatic uniter or the progressive firebrand? The statesman who, at his inauguration, pledged unity and humility? Or the flamethrower who recently declared that you鈥檙e either with his White House or you鈥檙e with former Confederate leader Jefferson Davis?

More than a year into his presidency, Biden has tried desperately to straddle these two personas in his domestic policy agenda 鈥� but the approach isn鈥檛 working. No leader can be both a moderate stabilizer and a partisan trailblazer at the same time. Tonight鈥檚 speech offers Biden a chance to clarify his governing philosophy and to redeem his languishing reputation. So will the real Joe Biden stand up?

Much ink has been spilled about Biden听, but trying to govern as FDR reincarnate. Biden is a pragmatist by nature and training, with a 30-plus-year career shaped by hammering out compromises on Capitol Hill. Yet his tenure in the Oval Office has been characterized by a frequently ambitious (if often unsuccessful) legislative agenda, and increasingly hyperbolic (and inflammatory)听. What changed?

Most obviously, Biden was crowned the figurehead of a modern Democratic party riven by听. Democrats鈥� (unexpected)听, initially relished by the White House for giving liberals a razor-thin majority in the Senate, proved a particularly double-edged sword: They emboldened progressives and raised (unrealistic) expectations for a party with听.

Biden never aimed to be a Trojan horse for the left. But the pressure to capitalize on controlling both houses of Congress complicated the bipartisanship that he promised. The result: He has attempted to appease both the progressive and moderate wings of his party 鈥� but clumsily and to a fault.

Out of the gates, Biden-the-Transformer proposed a mind-boggling听. His greatest early success was the passage of the听, which predictably devoured most of his political capital. The bill put $1,400 into the hands听, and 鈥� coupled with a successful initial rollout of听听鈥� unduly inflated the new president鈥檚 confidence.

Subsequently, however, the Transformer approach mostly failed: Build Back Better 鈥� the wide-ranging, multi-trillion-dollar omnibus bill encompassing universal pre-K, extended child tax credits, new climate policies, and healthcare expansion 鈥� floundered against Senator Joe Manchin鈥檚 accusations of 鈥渂udget gimmicks鈥� and 鈥渟hell games鈥� and concerns of听.

Efforts to听鈥� punctuated by immoderate comparisons to Jim听听and suggestions that the 2022 midterms results might not be 鈥渓egit鈥� due to voter disenfranchisement 鈥� also alienated Republicans and undermined Biden鈥檚 symbol as a uniter. Ironically, Biden鈥檚 maneuvers even turned off many liberals, who felt that his gambit to protect poor and minority voters was听.

At the same time, Biden-the-Pragmatist has still been visible, albeit less so. Most prominently, he signed the bipartisan infrastructure听. Yet even here, Biden鈥檚 courting of the Progressive Caucus, which willingly held the legislation hostage for months in the House, almost killed his signature deal. Eventually, the bill was salvaged, but only by moderate Republicans, who (perhaps surprisingly) ceded him a win.

Biden has also steered a moderate path on other domestic policy issues. For example, Congress is currently debating the bipartisan Innovation and Competitiveness bill, which includes provisions on semiconductor production, trade policy, supply chains, and research and investment to better compete with China. Further, senators from both parties have expressed willingness to revise the Electoral Count Act of 1887 to close loopholes that Trump tried to exploit in 2020.

With Biden鈥檚 approval ratings hovering at听, the State of the Union offers an opportunity for the White House to reboot, and, crucially, to offer a cogent definition of 鈥淏idenism.鈥� This is necessary now more than ever as crises abroad 鈥� particularly a nuclear saber-rattling Russia 鈥� complicate the president鈥檚 challenges at home.

While Biden and western allies have rightly responded to Vladimir Putin鈥檚 aggression with unprecedented听, those measures will impact the global and US economies, further spiking costs of energy and food at a time of already decades-high听. Biden鈥檚 priority throughout the Ukraine crisis has been keeping allies informed and united 鈥� he now needs to bring that same resolve to the American people.

To succeed, the White House needs more than a cosmetic rebrand of its agenda. Even as the president stares down new challenges in Europe, he needs a coherent agenda at home 鈥� one that鈥檚 not reflexively moderate or progressive, but that鈥檚 rooted in a vision for America that鈥檚 consistent with what Biden believes, that鈥檚 feasible, and that he can sell to a country that鈥檚 aching for genuine leadership.

Biden鈥檚 political acculturation on Capitol Hill, and aspirations for the Oval Office, made him relentlessly attuned to appeasing all sides of his party. But he鈥檚 the president now; it鈥檚 time for the real Joe Biden to stand up.

Links

• UCL Centre on US Politics
• UCL Political Science
• UCL Faculty of Social & Historical Sciences

Image

(l-r): Dr Thomas Gift, Dr Julie Norman