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The report, published by the UK鈥檚 National Preparedness Commission (NPC), concludes that the five-level alert system is pointless because the levels are not linked to specific actions, unlike systems in other countries that have been praised for their response to the pandemic.

The result is that the UK version has little value or benefit and just adds to the torrent of听messages the public receive, causing confusion and putting lives at risk, according to the听report, entitled Enhancing Warnings.

The report鈥檚 authors Dr Carina Fearnley and Professor Ilan Kelman, of the UCL Warning Research Centre, argue that warnings must translate into decisions and actions, otherwise听they are not fulfilling their purpose.

In New Zealand, for example, the Covid-19 Alert Levels Summary sets out four levels, each with clear guidance on the risk assessment and range of measures in place across key sectors. As a unified and comprehensive source of information, it gives authorities the credibility, accountability and transparency they need to ensure everyone knows what to do, setting expectations and responsibilities from the outset.

Having introduced the UK Covid-19 Alert Levels system two months into the first lockdown, the UK government did later create a three-tier local alert system which included specific听actions. However, with this then sidelined by further national lockdowns, the report鈥檚 authors听are clear this has only added to the public鈥檚 confusion.

Co-author Dr Carina Fearnley (UCL Science & Technology Studies), Director of the UCL Warning Research Centre, said: 鈥淪uccessful Alert Level Systems provide a framework to help people understand what is happening in a crisis and how they should respond as its severity ramps up or down. They save lives by supporting people to prepare for, and navigate through, a crisis and fostering a collective sense of responsibility.

鈥淲ithout a robust Alert Level System at the heart of our country鈥檚 pandemic response, people are being bombarded with a stream of ever-changing advice that is reactive, inconsistent and unclear. There is no doubt this is costing lives.

鈥淚n the UK, government advice on Covid-19 is increasingly seen as politically driven, rather听than representing the best available information from trusted, expert sources, supported by听decisive leadership from politicians. Conflicting messages have led to confusion and an听increasing sense of 鈥榯hem and us鈥�, which we know reduces compliance.鈥�

The report鈥檚 authors also point out that in the UK the triggers for raising or lowering the听Covid-19 alert level 鈥� in this case, the 鈥楻鈥� number 鈥� are regularly redefined, adding to a lack听of trust. Whilst adaptability and adjustability are important, the report states that the decision making process on crossing alert-level thresholds should be clear and transparent to听enhance compliance with measures.

Lord Toby Harris, Chair of the National Preparedness Commission, said: 鈥淎 strong Alert Level System should provide a roadmap for a country dealing with a crisis, maintaining independence from the ebb and flow of politics and personalities. We are at a crucial point in this pandemic where there is a risk that non-compliance with guidance becomes a serious problem for the NHS and for wider society, as official advice is undermined.

鈥淭he National Preparedness Commission brings together some of the UK鈥檚 best experts in听handling emergencies. It is clear the country could do better. There is still time to make a听difference and to save countless lives and we stand ready to support the government in this听别蹿蹿辞谤迟.鈥�

The report sets out how to implement a successful Alert Level System in the UK. Key advice听includes**:

鈥� Encourage the public to work together by setting clear expectations as to how the听public should respond at each level of alert

鈥� Consider carefully the criterion used to determine thresholds, or whether it will be听based on broader risks. This requires a wide range of independent input.

鈥� National level standardisation significantly reduces confusion whilst also being able听to facilitate local requirements

鈥� Enforcement of the rules is needed.

The Enhancing Warnings report also looks more broadly at lessons from several key large-scale crises including human-caused climate change, terrorism and poverty. It makes听practical recommendations on how to develop effective warnings and successfully engage听the public to prepare, and to act when a crisis hits.

*Alert graphic: (The national alert system, UK government). See slide 1

**For the full list of recommendations see p29 of the report

Links

• UCL Warning Research Centre
• UCL Science & Technology Studies
• UCL Institute for Risk & Disaster Reduction
• UCL Mathematical & Physical Sciences

Source

Image

• Coronavirus health warning poster on a Scottish high street. Credit: iStock

Media contact

Mark Greaves

T: +44 (0)7990 675947

E: m.greaves [at] ucl.ac.uk