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Carbon offset marketneeds radical reform

4 December 2020

The global voluntary carbon market, whichallows companies to invest in environmental projects around the worldto offset their own carbon footprint,could undermineglobal warmingwithout an overhaul,a UCLand Trove Research study has found.

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Firms can offsettheir carbon dioxide emissionsby purchasing credits from projects around the worldthat reduce emissions or remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.These include wind and solar farms, as well as initiatives to preserve forests or grow new trees.

But, with 600 to 700 million tonnes of old carbon credits available, many of which are no longer consideredvalidin terms of offsetting,real carbon reductions are under threat.

The Global Voluntary Carbon Market: Dealing With the Problem of Historic Credits, led by Trove Research with UCL Geography, says anew governing body is needed todeal withthe surplusandset strict rules on what counts as a carbon credit.

With increasing commitments from countriesand businessesto go ‘carbon neutral’, the report also predictsthe market forcarbon offsets could be worth up to $25bn(£18bn) a yearby 2030,compared with just $0.4bn (£300m)today.

Study advisorProfessor Simon Lewis (UCLGeography) said: “The carbon offsetting concept relies on the environmental integrity of the credits – specifically that money paid for the offsets is usedtoreduceemissions or capture carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

But methodologies and standards for defining carbon offsets - and the rigour with which the standards are enforced - have evolved and greatly improved over time. This means that older credits may have been created under less stringent requirements but are still able to be sold in the market today. These older unclaimed credits should be retired as they cannot be considered an additional removal of greenhouse gases.”

Report authorssupport the commitments made by companies and individuals to reduce their carbon footprints, butsayreform is neededwitha mixture of regulation, improved standards and stimulating consumer-led demand to ensure only high-quality credits are purchased.

At present, however, the surplus of credits accessible by the voluntary market is between seven and eight times the current annual demand, and the researchers estimate that this could increase to 15 times current demand if allprojects decided to issue their full credits.

Guy Turnerfrom Trove Research, lead author of the study,said: “Our analysis shows thatmanycompaniesare entering into the carbon market wanting to reduce their carbon footprint, but these intentions risk being undermined byalarge volume of poor-quality,legacy credits.

“It is in the interests of buyersanddevelopers of carbon projects that this issue is managed appropriately so that revenue from the sale of carbon offsets is used to support new, high quality carbon reducing projects”.

“Above all, it is critical that the huge volume of creditscreated underthe CleanDevelopment Mechanism (CDM)dating back to as faras 2010,is prevented from polluting today’svoluntary carbon market.Methodologies and standards have improved since then, and these CDM credits should be ineligible for use in thevoluntary market after 2020.”

The study authors suggest three potential routes to deal with legacy credits:

1. Registry-led:Registries would have a central role in the market, creating standards for defining and approving projects and authorising the release of carbon credits once verified by approved auditors, currently VERRA, Gold Standard, American Carbon Registry, Climate Action Reserve and Plan Vivo.These organisations should also consider cleaning their registries of low-quality legacy projects, taking into account contractual obligations with developers.

2. Governance body-led:Discussions are ongoing about the creation of an independent governance body that would oversee the integrity of the market. Part of such an organisation’s role should be to decide on how to restrict the use of legacy credits.

3. Buyer-led:A consumer-led approach could help limit the use of older, poorquality credits,with groups of carbon offset buyers agreeing to the highest standards of environmental integrity.

Study advisor Professor Mark Maslin (UCL Geography) said: “The view of the study teamis that all three approaches are needed. Registries should take responsibility for cleaning up credits, whilst the new governance body should provide rules for registries and buyers of creditsalike.

A buyer-led initiative could also be very effective in driving standards for both high ambition and the use of high-quality carbon offsets, where appropriate. All of these are required if companies are to have confidence that the carbon offsets they are buying will really reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure they fulfil their climate change pledges.”

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Jane Bolger

T:+44 (0) 7990 675 947

E:j.bolger@ucl.ac.uk