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Description
This module will introduce students to the probabilistic representation of belief and its connection to rationality, evidence, and decision making. Some of the questions that will be covered include: What are degrees of belief? What are the constraints on degrees of belief, and why should we believe that these constraints are rationally required? How are degrees of belief related to action? Can probabilistic reasoning help to solve problems of induction and confirmation?
Provisional Syllabus:
Week 1: Full vs. partial belief
Week 2: Axioms and rules of probability
Week 3: Dutch Book arguments for probabilism
Week 4: Accuracy arguments for probabilism
Week 5: Conditionalization听
Week 6: Priors
Week 7: Interpretations of probability
Week 8: Confirmation and induction
Week 9: Decision Theory
Week 10: Risk
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Primary Text:
Titelbaum, Mike (2022):听Fundamentals of Bayesian Epistemology
Background Reading:
Hacking, Ian (2001):听An Introduction to Probability and Inductive Logic
Skyrms, Brian (2000): Choice and Chance: An Introduction to Inductive Logic
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Philosophy Area A
Module deliveries for 2024/25 academic year
Last updated
This module description was last updated on 8th April 2024.
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