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When Joe Biden took the oath of office in January 2021, many expected him to be the听. His mandate: heal the country鈥檚 wounds after four turbulent years of Donald Trump. Don鈥檛 try to be a transformative figure. Then hand the reins to a capable successor.

Fast forward to 2024 and there鈥檚 room for debate about the merits (and demerits) of Biden鈥檚 first-term legacy. But it鈥檚 Biden鈥檚 decision to run for re-election that鈥檚 become the听听for Democrats.

听collated by US political website FiveThirtyEight shows Biden with a dismal sub-40% approval rating. Former president Trump, the听听Republican nominee who has all punched his ticket to the general election with primary victories in听听补苍诲听, has jumped into the lead in a head-to-head match against Biden in听.

Many allies privately, and publicly,听听that Biden is at risk not only of overstaying his welcome, but of passing the baton to his twice-impeached rival that Biden himself pillories as an听.

Is it too late for Biden to bow out in 2024? Technically, no. Biden could, for any reason, declare that he鈥檚 no longer seeking a second term.

If he did it before March, there would still be (some) time for other Democrats to get their name on many primary ballots, although deadlines for more than听听have already passed.

If it didn鈥檛 happen by then, his successor would be determined in a high-stakes听听scheduled for late August. Unless the Democrat party changed the rules, delegates pledged to Biden would enter the convention 鈥渦ncommitted,鈥� and so would lobby, and ultimately vote, on a replacement.

Practically, however, the odds of Biden changing course now look small. The two main reasons for pressing ahead haven鈥檛 changed since Biden announced his reelection bid last April. First, Biden is the only candidate who鈥檚 proven that he can beat Trump. Second, there鈥檚 no obvious heir apparent.

The only one who can beat Trump?

Biden has said explicitly听听that 鈥淸Trump] is running so I have to run鈥�. Although he听听he鈥檚 not the only one who could topple Trump, Biden clearly feels that he has a significant upper hand. For one thing, he鈥檚 already proven he can do it.

There鈥檚 a reason why Biden earned the Democrat nomination in 2020. Biden鈥檚 blue-collar roots, resonance with moderate voters, and an ability to sell himself as the most 鈥渆lectable鈥� Democrat ultimately gave him a come-from-behind win in those primaries.

In that general election, Democrats鈥� faith in him paid off. Biden听, including Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Pennsylvania 鈥� all of which had gone for Trump over Hillary Clinton in 2016.

Unlike in a typical election, 2024 is likely to be more a听听than about the incumbent in the Oval Office. Biden is betting voters will prefer the devil they know. 鈥淒on鈥檛 compare me to the Almighty,鈥澨�. 鈥淐ompare me to the alternative鈥�.

No heir apparent

The Democrats also don鈥檛 have a deep-bench of obvious successors. Biden sees himself as sparing the party from what would otherwise be a brutal nomination fight.

Whereas Trump has cruised to a commanding lead in the Republican primaries and squashed challenger and former governor of South Carolina,听, a contested Democrat primary would be punishing. The candidate who emerged would be battle-tested, but potentially too busy nursing wounds to pivot into the general election.

Four years ago, many envisioned the current vice president, Kamala Harris, as Biden鈥檚听. Few say that now. If Biden鈥檚 poll numbers have disappointed, Harris鈥檚 have been a听. Her听, at 37%, are the lowest of any first-term VP听.

翱迟丑别谤听听names who ran in 2020 鈥� like US transportation secretary Pete Buttigieg or Minnesota senator Amy Klobuchar 鈥� could step in for Biden. But it鈥檚 not happenstance they lost to Biden in 2020. No one was able to unite Democrat moderates and progressives, much less win over Republicans and swing voters.

Some think California governor Gavin Newsom is already running a听听for the White House, while Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer is also听听about a presidential bid. Yet many see Newsom as 鈥渢oo Hollywood,鈥� while Whitmer hasn鈥檛 been vetted on a national stage.

New York representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, too, has been rumoured as a听. But a hard, populist leftist, without the cross-over appeal of left-wing Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, would almost certainly guarantee a Trump victory.

Experts have also speculated about the possibility of a听听parachuting into the Democrat Convention, such as former first lady听听or even legendary TV personality听. This seems more like the stuff of liberal fantasies.

No turning back

Biden had plenty of opportunities to gracefully ride into the sunset. He could have said that he鈥檇 accomplished everything he set out to accomplish. He could have cited his desire for a rising generation to be represented in politics.

Now, it seems, there鈥檚 no turning back. Eleven months from now, we鈥檒l know if Biden made the strategically right decision. But if he misfires, it likely will be several years until we know the full effects of that choice.

A Trump sequel promises, at best, volatility and serious tests to US democratic norms and institutions. At worst, it promises a听听鈥� the full-blown manifestation of the ugly underbelly that manifested itself on January 6 in the attack on听.

With no back-up plan for exiting, Biden鈥檚 legacy, win or lose, will invariably be tied to whether he refused to be the 鈥減laceholder president鈥�.

Links

• Dr Thomas Gift's academic profile听
• UCL听Centre on US Politics
• UCL Political Science